Impact of future climate trend and fluctuation on winter wheat yield in the North China Plain and adaptation strategies.

Assessment of the impact of future climate change on winter wheat yield Under the overall influence of future climate change, the simulated winter wheat yield in the North China Plain (NCP) showed a trend of increasing by 1.5% in the near-term 2030s and decreasing by 13.4% in the far-term 2080s (Fig. 4 a).

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The fluctuation in solar radiation is relatively small (− 1.6% to 0.7%), showing a decreasing trend in the near-term and mid-term, while under the far-term medium and high forcing scenarios, solar radiation fluctuations exhibit an increasing trend.

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This result aligns with other studies showing a decreasing trend in temperature fluctuations during the winter and spring seasons in northern China 60 .

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