Predicting future forest fire occurrence probability based on drought characteristics at various temporal scales in P. R. China.

Under the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, MDN, MDD, MDS, and MDI broadly showed a trend of decreasing in the near- and medium-term, and increasing in the long-term.

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We also found that in the near and medium term of the future, with climate change, the forest fire occurrence probability in most forest land of northern China (NWC, NC, and NEC), especially in Northeast China (NEC), shows an increasing trend, but a decreasing trend in most forest land of southern China (SC, SWC, and EC).

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