Predicting the spatio-temporal risk of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Europe by combining hazard and exposure drivers.

The autumnal cooling rate (RI = 3.22, which is negative by definition and measures the rate of decrease in late summer temperatures, showed a negative trend, meaning that human TBE risk is higher when such temperature decrease is steeper. 3.2 Predicted probability of human TBE presence at the regional and municipal level across Europe The predicted probability of human TBE presence at the regional level is shown in Fig. 4 .

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This decrease only implies a reduction in the predicted probability, meaning that human TBE infections may still occur in these areas, but there has been a decreasing trend in recent years. 4 Discussion The current spread and emergence of TBE cases across Europe has led to a greater demand for high-resolution predictive models to enhance our understanding of the ecological and anthropogenic factors that enhance TBE risk.

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Variables which showed a positive trend are the habitat suitability of vertebrate hosts (RI = 39.28); the density of roads and pathways in forested areas (RI = 22.46); the total precipitation of the driest quarter (RI = 19.76); the proportion of forested areas (RI = 13.11); and population density (RI = 2.16).

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