Epidemiological trajectories and predictive modeling of latent tuberculosis prevalence in South Asia: an in-depth global burden of disease analysis (1990-2021) with advanced forecasting to 2050.

The 2015–2019 rise, though less pronounced than among females, suggests challenges in high-risk male groups, such as migrant laborers, with the near-significant decline in 2019–2021 indicating partial mitigation efforts. 4 Forecast Results: Projected Age-Standardized prevalence Rates of Latent Tuberculosis infection in South Asia, 2021–2050 Projections of age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR per 100,000 population) for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in South Asia and its five constituent countries were generated using auto-ARIMA models fitted to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 historical data from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts extended to 2050 accompanied by 95% prediction intervals (95% PI).

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