Spatiotemporal trends in tuberculosis incidence in Thailand, 2012-2023: a nationwide, province-level analysis.

Additionally, a borderline significant decline was observed in health region 11 (AAPC = − 11.79%, 95% CI: − 22.16 to − 0.04; P = 0.049), whereas health region 13 exhibited a statistically significant decline with an AAPC of − 11.19% (95% CI: − 22.44 to − 3.74; P = 0.006).

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Provinces with non-significant AAPC but AAPC ≥ 5% were flagged as “trend uncertain (declining)” or “trend uncertain (rising)” to highlight clinically important effect sizes that did not reach statistical significance because of limited series length.

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