Research on the spatial spillover effect and heterogeneity of new agricultural productive forces on agricultural carbon emissions.

(2) From 2012 to 2023, the local Moran’s I of agricultural new quality productivity remained positive, showing a fluctuating trend of “increase-decrease-increase”, and most provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities were distributed in the first, second, and third quadrants; the local Moran’s I of agricultural carbon emissions was also positive, but showed a decreasing trend year by year, and most provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities were distributed in the first, second, and fourth quadrants.

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The results showed that: from 2012 to 2023, the overall level of agricultural new quality productivity showed a trend of continuous improvement, the nuclear density map maintained a single peak shape, the peak value first decreased, then increased, then decreased, and finally increased steadily; The regional distribution of agricultural carbon emissions showed significant heterogeneity.

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