An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations.

In addition, population trends showed a near-significant positive correlation with retrodicted trends in the suitability of the climate for each species (CST), based upon the climatic envelope models and observed recent climatic change.

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There was a marginally significant positive correlation between observed population trend and CST when effects of potentially confounding variables were allowed for using model averaging ( Fig. 1 , z = 1.64, P = 0.050), though the relationship was non-significant when these other effects were ignored ( Tables S4 and S5 ).

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We found a highly significant positive correlation between interspecific variation in recent population trend and CLIM ( Figure 1 , Text S2 , Figure S3 ).

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