The genetic aspects of multiple sclerosis.

), a locus that had previously been considered by Australian[ 96 ] and Swedish researchers.[ 97 ] In a follow-up study involving collaborators from the UK and Belgium, these US researchers studied 197 multiplex families, 1,901 trio families, 1,515 cases and 3,204 unrelated controls and identified a highly significant association ( P = 2.9 × 10 −7 ) with rs6897932 a non-synonymous SNP (nsSNP) from exon 6 of the IL7R gene,[ 98 ] a result which was replicated in an accompanying paper from Swedish researchers.[ 99 ] This locus was thus the first non-MHC susceptibility gene to be identified in multiple sclerosis.

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These very low prior odds have a profound influence upon the odds that any nominally significant result identified in an association study is a true positive rather than false positive (the posterior odds).[ 91 ] From Figure 3 it is obvious why P -values in the range of 5% to 0.1% will nearly always be false positives, even in well-powered studies.

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