A new approach to age-period-cohort analysis using partial least squares regression: the trend in blood pressure in the Glasgow Alumni cohort.

For example, suppose researchers observe an increasing trend in the incidences of the type-I diabetes in children in a geographic area over the last three decades [9] , they hypothesize that this trend might be due to (1) the improved diagnostic skills in early indentifying young patients (i.e. time period effect), or (2) the decreased early infections due to improved hygiene and living environment (cohort effect), or maybe both.

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Our study shows that there was also a negative trend in blood pressure for period effects, i.e. students who attended the university in the 1960s had lower blood pressure than those attending university in the 1950s.

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PLS also shows a decreasing trend in blood pressure over the examination period.

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