Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data.

Autocorrelation at-lag-1 increased almost linearly up to the transition with a strong trend as estimated by Kendall’s τ (rank correlation) both for the original (τ = 0.911) and the residual (after detrending) datasets (τ = 0.944) ( Fig. 2E ).

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In the flickering dataset, CH was always significant and its value even showed an increasing trend towards the end of the record ( Fig. 4D ).

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