By contrast, M 1 captures the difference in long term trends in air temperature and water temperature and hence produces a decreasing trend in water temperature, which is more consistent with the observed patterns in the historical time series.
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A hierarchical bayesian model to quantify uncertainty of stream water temperature forecasts.
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The sentences
Daily water temperatures were simulated using a sinusoidal function with an annual periodicity and amplitude of 13°C, plus a negative trend in the annual mean of −0.5°C over 20 years starting from an original mean of 12°C.
The time series of air temperature was simulated with the same periodicity and amplitude but with an increasing trend of +0.5°C over the 20 years.