Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

Power to detect a significant trend was typically less than 5%, but for datasets simulated to have an increasing trend, an increase in stopover duration resulted in an increase in power to almost 10% ( Fig 2b ) due to fewer credible intervals that included zero as estimated trends became increasingly positively biased.

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While a decline in stopover duration was not examined here, it is expected to result in more negative population trends than actual, i.e., estimated trends would be less extreme than actual for populations that are increasing, and more extreme than actual for populations that are declining, resulting in a lower probability of detecting a positive trend, and an increased probability of detecting a (inflated) declining trend.

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