Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis.

In the inset of Fig 3 we show what would be the result obtained from an ordinary differential equation displaying bistable behavior, in which the rainfall parameter oscillates in time and has a decreasing trend, inducing a regime change.

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To verify that this is a sound assumption, we show in Fig 2 the ratio of water inflow to the rainfall in the Cantareira reservoir as a function of the volume, yielding a clear trend: the higher the volume, the more efficiently the rainfall becomes water flowing into the reservoir.

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