Risk stratification for malignant progression in Barrett's esophagus: Gender, age, duration and year of surveillance.

A meta-analysis has shown a trend for a decrease in incidence of adenocarcinoma to be observed with time (which did not reach statistical significance, P = 0.117)[ 3 ] and in recent years large population-based cohort studies[ 6 - 8 ] have demonstrated lower adenocarcinoma incidence rates (0.22%, 0.43% and 0.12% per annum respectively).

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The mean age at surveillance was 62.3 years, with a small trend for this to rise in males (60 in the 1990s, 61 in 2000-2004 and 62 from 2005 onwards), but no change in females (mean age at surveillance 65).

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