Trend Analysis of Aggregate Outcomes in Complex Health Survey Data.

As we observed, there may be significant differences between trends modeled in absolute versus relative annual change.

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In contrast, all regression-based approaches (including standard linear regression) yielded profoundly different outcomes as compared to a non-design-corrected Cochran Armitage trend test, which showed a highly significant difference between trends among males versus females.

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Use of statistical techniques that account for estimate variance is critical, particularly when resource-allocation decisions may be made based on the presence or absence of a significant trend.

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