A new bovine tuberculosis model for England and Wales (BoTMEW) to simulate epidemiology, surveillance and control.

However, the average χ 2 24 measure of deviation (see Methods) was 101.0 (Standard deviation (SD) 22.4), whereas the 95% upper confidence limit for the difference between two χ 2 24 statistics generated by random variation would be 51.5 (see Additional file 1 , Part 2, Section 2.5), so the deviation between the baseline model fit and the observations was clearly significant, demonstrating that the model fit was not the closest possible and model assumptions and simplifications caused significant errors.

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