Rainfall trends and variation in the Maasai Mara ecosystem and their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics.

From 1917 onwards there was a decreasing trend in the annual rainfall component that switched to an increasing trend in 1935, after which rainfall increased from a low of about 600 mm to a high of about 850 mm in 1962 ( Fig 3B ).

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Rainfall seasonality was strongly deterministic (non-random) and persistent both in the Mara and in Narok Town as indicated by the highly significant seasonal components ( S1 Table ) that were characterized by highly insignificant disturbance variances ( S2 Table ).

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The increase in severe annual floods (0.90 quantile) was close to significance in the Mara ( Table 5 , Fig 6A ).

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The p-value for the runs test was marginally significant ( Table 4 ), suggesting that the sequence of extreme flood years in which the wet season rainfall exceeded the 20-year return level in Narok Town deviated from complete randomness.

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The stochastic disturbance variance of the primary annual cycle did not quite reach significance ( Table 2 ).

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Trends in the severity of droughts and floods There was no evidence for a significant trend in the severity of droughts in the Mara from quantile regression during 1965–2014 ( Table 5 , Fig 6A, 6C and 6E ).

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