Base-rate expectations modulate the causal illusion.

PLoS One · 2019 · PMC6400408 · PMID 30835775

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hedged sentence

0.0600

closest p · 1.2× alpha

0.0600

boldest claim

The sentences

only marginally significantp = 0.060so close (0.05 < p ≤ 0.1)

However, these conclusions must be taken with caution, as the slopes in the two groups did not differ significantly from each other, according to the Fisher’s transformation test (they were only marginally significant): Z = 1.88, p = 0.060.

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