The interaction between island geomorphology and environmental parameters drives Adélie penguin breeding phenology on neighboring islands near Palmer Station, Antarctica.

From 1979/1991 to 2009, a negative trend was present in expected CIDs over time, which was significant or marginally significant for model A (−0.19 ± 0.06 days/year, p = .005), model B (−0.14 ± 0.07 days/year, p = .07), and CID observations (−0.23 ± 0.13 days/year, p = .11).

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From 2010 to 2015/16, a positive trend was present in expected CID over time, which was significant or marginally significant for model A (1.57 ± 0.46 days/year, p = .03), model B (2.22 ± 0.48 days/year, p = .01), and model 2 (1.0 ± 0.55 days/year, p = .12).

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