Time series analysis of cumulative incidences of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in China using both Grey and SARIMA models.

Nationally, incidence counts displayed a significant trend of decrease: almost 33000 cases of typhoid fever was reported in 2004 but the count fell below 10000 and stayed in the close range since 2010; more than 16000 cases of paratyphoid fever was reported in 2004, and the continual downfall reached to 2311 cases in 2016 ( Fig 1A ).

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