Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon.

A2018 discussed various indicators of decoupling between deforestation and fire: (i) an increasing trend in the annual number of active fires detected per unit area deforested; (ii) a decreasing trend in the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of the regressions of active fire counts on deforestation rates, across phases of the Plan for Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAm); (iii) lack of a significant trend in CO emissions; (iv) increasing exacerbation of fire season severity in drought years, namely in the extent of area burned by forest understory fires.

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However, when we use annual means of monthly [CO] at 800 hPa over the same period, there is a marginally significant negative trend, where time explains 32% of the variance in [CO] (Fig. 2 e).

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There is still an increasing trend in the fire number per deforested area, suggestive of some degree of decoupling, but the increase is not nearly as strong as in the superseded database and is barely significant at the 95% confidence level.

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