Having a majority of students in online-only districts resulted in 10.13 fewer new daily cases per 100,000 people over the post-treatment period than having a majority of students in primarily in-person districts in the synthetic control estimates, which represents a 41% reduction although the effect was not quite statistically significant.
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Effect of Fall 2020 K-12 instruction types on COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths in Illinois counties.
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The other methods all produced somewhat larger estimates of that effect, but none of the estimates was nearly statistically significant.