A Novel Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates through Web Queries and Automated Forecasting Algorithms: Evidence from Romania.

Figure 3 shows that the age-standardized mortality rate from all cancers follows an increasing trend in Romania from 2011 to 2018, reflecting the inefficiency of the public healthcare system in the country, whereas most other CEE countries have managed to reverse the trend.

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Hence, whereas the incidence follows an increasing trend until the first join-point (i.e., 2014), a reversal is detected thereafter, and a decreasing trend is confirmed over the second segment (i.e., 2014–2017).

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Moreover, the implementation of join-point regression analysis, also known as change-point regression or segmented regression analysis [ 33 ] to detect changing trends in cancer incidence (see for example [ 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 ]) further confirms that the incidence rate in Romania presents two join points in 2014 and 2017, leading to three periods with a different trend over the analysis period, as follows: a positive trend with a slope coefficient of 14.68 until 2014, a negative trend with a slope coefficient of −8.83 during 2014–2017, and a slightly increasing trend with a slope of 2.05 after 2017 ( Figure 4 , Panel b).

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