Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream.

In NAGA, the positive temperature trend between the Gulf Stream and the Norwegian Sea is interrupted by a negative trend (Fig. 4c, d ).

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Similarly, the winter Barents-Kara SIC in HIST exhibits a decreasing trend of −2.8 ± 1.4% decade −1 , which is close to the CMIP6 multimodel mean trend (−3.1 ± 2.3% decade −1 ) but smaller than the observations from HadISST2 (−4.9% decade −1 ) and COBE-SST2 (−5.3% decade −1 ) (Fig. 1c, d and Supplementary Fig. 2b ).

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