Climate models fail to capture strengthening wintertime North Atlantic jet and impacts on Europe.

For jet speed, the models show a marginally statistically significant ( P = 0.05) positive trend in multimodel mean jet speed (0.026 m s −1 decade −1 ), but this is about 20 times weaker than the observed trend from ERA5.

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In reanalysis, despite substantial multidecadal variability, there is a clear trend toward strengthening of the jet stream and toward the positive phase of the NAO.

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