Dynamic forecasting of severe acute graft-versus-host disease after transplantation.

1a ), and a similar trend also appeared to exist in the pediatric cohort, although it did not reach statistical significance (HR 4.40 (95% CI, 0.58–33.47); P = 0.120, log-rank test) (Supplementary Fig. 2 ). aGOAT encompassed a total of 194 dynamic variables for the adult cohort and 159 dynamic variables for the pediatric cohort, collected during the first 100 days after transplantation (Supplementary Table 2 ), including vital signs, daily fluid loss (due to diarrhea, vomiting and so on), complete blood counts, blood chemistry and electrolytes, peripheral blood/bone marrow immune cell profiles (measured by flow cytometry), plasma inflammatory factor levels and so on.

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AUROC values showed a trend similar to AUPRC values. daGOAT’s AUROC peaked at 0.78 (mean; s.d., 0.17 (range, 0.58–1.00)) on day 23 (Extended Data Fig. 1c and Supplementary Fig. 3 ).

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