Divergent Population Trends of Two Sympatric Auk Species in the Rapidly Warming Gulf of Maine.

Finally, we conducted post hoc linear regression analyses on the mean estimates for each demographic rate (first‐year survival, adult survival, and productivity) to determine if there was a significant trend over time. 3 Results 3.1 Demographic Parameter Estimates The ATPU breeding population size remained relatively stable at around 8000 pairs (Figure 3A ), while the RAZO population increased from approximately 400 to 2700 pairs (Figure 3B ); the mean annual growth rate ( λ ) was 1.01 (95% CRI 0.87–1.20, Figure 3C ) and 1.10 (95% CRI 0.94–1.26; Figure 3D ) for ATPU and RAZO, respectively.

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Annual estimates of ATPU adult survival ( α 2 ) ranged from 0.73 (95% CRI 0.71–0.75) to 0.93 (95% CRI 0.91–0.95) with a mean of 0.85 (95% CRI 0.83–0.88; Figure 4A ) and an overall weakly significant negative trend over time (slope: −0.004; p ‐value: 0.046).

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