Discussion We find that, notwithstanding an increasing trend of SST in the BoB since 1950s, the MD frequency in the Bay of Bengal has continuously fallen.
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Falling monsoon depression frequency: a Gray-Sikka conditions perspective.
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Recent studies report a negative trend in the frequency of MD since 1950s 2 15 16 17 , in spite of increasing SST over BoB.
Results Decadal changes in the MD frequency: a Gray-Sikka condition perspective A time series of seasonal frequency of the MDs, and for the period of 1891 to 2010 clearly shows ( Figure 1a ) a decreasing trend in the frequency after 1950s, which is significant at 99% confidence level (Mann-Kendall test).
We have also verified that the area-averaged vertical wind shear (difference in the zonal winds at 850 hPa and 200 hPa) and the low level relative vorticity in the region does neither exhibit a significant trend for the period 1950–2010 ( Figure S2 ) nor its the correlation between with the frequency of the MD significant.