No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species.

Results Changes in distribution Roughly two-thirds of all species showed a trend in occupancy probability and about half of all species in colonisation and persistence (the complement of extinction) probabilities.

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Using the estimated metapopulation metrics obtained from site-occupancy models across all sites we checked if there was a significant trend in occupancy, colonisation and persistence probability per species.

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We used extensive data sets from The Netherlands and tested three specific predictions: 1) given that the average summer temperature in the Netherlands in the last 20 years showed a positive trend, general trends in ectotherms should be positive; 2) colonisation and persistence probabilities should be higher during periods of high temperature; and 3) extreme weather events are expected to be reflected in higher extinction risks and lower occupancy and colonisation probabilities.

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