Dynamic simulation of management events for assessing impacts of climate change on pre-alpine grassland productivity.

3.3.2 Validation of simulations against DWD phenological observations Compilation of data of the start of the growing season and first cut from >50 sites of the phenological observation network of the German Weather Service (DWD) located in the pre-Alpine study region revealed a significant trend towards earlier dates of first cuts from 1991 to 2016 (r2 = 0.25, p < 0.05), following the trend of increasing mean annual air temperatures during this time period (correlation of first cutting dates and temperature; r = 0.72, p < .0001) ( Fig. 6 ).

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In both RCP scenarios with progression of time a clear trend towards an earlier simulated start of the growing season and first cutting events are evident ( Fig. 5 ).

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This was not the case for the static and dynamic reduced N management which both showed even a decreasing trend from 2060 onwards.

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