Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

2 e), the area of PERA, LeERA, and LERA in QTP decreases significantly and exhibits a clear trend of increasing area in the other two risk categories in the near future, i.e., 2021–2040.

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Although there is an overall trend of increasing precipitation and temperature in QTP, there exist certain distinct regional characteristics as well.

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In general, under the existing global climate change scenario, the ecological risk faced by the QTP show a decreasing trend under the influence of climate factors, and the decrease in ecological risks is much higher at higher elevations than at lower elevations.

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LERA showed a trend opposite to that of LeERA, while HERA showed a trend that increased with altitude.

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There was an increasing trend in the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, whereas a decreasing trend in the SSP126 scenario.

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