Climate change effect on wheat phenology depends on cultivar change.

Long-term changes in crop phenology (observer network western Germany) The PVTT from emergence to heading (PVTT heading ) calculated from the observations for western Germany showed similar trends, with a 15% smaller PVTT heading in the most recent years than before 1986, which did not show a significant trend (Fig. 2d ).

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The accuracy of the model simulations for the period from 1972–2013 where we found a negative trend in PVTT heading also improved when we considered the combined effects of climate, sowing date and cultivar (NRMSE = 42% and 48%, R 2 = 0.82) compared with simulations that only considered the effects of climate (NRMSE = 51% and 90%, R 2 = 0.74) when using the PVTT heading obtained from the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 seasons, respectively (Fig. 5 ).

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We also found that the PVTTs until flowering (PVTT flowering ) of the new cultivars were 18% and 14% lower than the PVTT flowering of the old cultivars in the first and second years of the field experiment, respectively, whereas the differences in the PVTT flowering of the cultivars released before 1972 were small and did not show a clear trend (Fig. 2a,b ).

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