Barely Significant

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Four outcome categories were defined: True Positive (TP) when both methods returned a significant trend in the same direction; False Positive (FP) when ITA returned a significant result but mMK did not; True Negative (TN) when neither method returned a significant trend; and False Negative (FN) when mMK returned a significant but ITA did not.
(2) From 2012 to 2023, the local Moran’s I of agricultural new quality productivity remained positive, showing a fluctuating trend of “increase-decrease-increase”, and most provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities were distributed in the first, second, and third quadrants; the local Moran’s I of agricultural carbon emissions was also positive, but showed a decreasing trend year by year, and most provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities were distributed in the first, second, and fourth quadrants.
The results showed that: from 2012 to 2023, the overall level of agricultural new quality productivity showed a trend of continuous improvement, the nuclear density map maintained a single peak shape, the peak value first decreased, then increased, then decreased, and finally increased steadily; The regional distribution of agricultural carbon emissions showed significant heterogeneity.